Smart DCA backtests on 40 crypto coinsSmart DCA on 40 coins

The published defaults on 40 coins, Binance spot, on 1h, 2h and 4h, from Jan 2018 or each coin's listing to 27 Oct 2026. 95 of 120 tests ended above their start, with no stop loss by default and a median max drawdown of 28.6%. Made for Bitcoin and large caps; coins 21⁠-⁠40 show why.Defaults on 40 coins, Binance spot: 95 of 120 backtests ended positive, with no stop loss by default and a 28.6% median max drawdown.

  • Source: Navixa's research simulator
  • 0.1% commission and slippage included
  • Coins fixed by market cap on 28 Oct 2026

No stop loss by default. In our multi-coin backtests (simulated, 4h), four of the top 20 by market cap still hold a cycle opened more than a year ago: BTC, ETH, BNB and SOL. Across all 40 coins on 4h, 17 of 40 do.

The risk next to those figures (the top 20 by market cap, 4h): median worst open loss -21.5%, median time in market 84%, and the longest closed cycle 1,284 days (XLM, May 2021 to Nov 2024).

On coins 21⁠-⁠40: 35 of 60 tests ended above their start, median max drawdown 31.5% on 4h. The worst results: FIL 1h -74%, FIL 4h -73% and FIL 2h -73%. Coins that ended below their start on at least one timeframe: FIL, CAKE, WLD, SHIB, DOT, ARB, ZRO, RENDER, JUP and DASH.Coins 21⁠-⁠40: 35 of 60 tests ended above their start, median max drawdown 31.5% on 4h. Worst: FIL 1h -74%, FIL 4h -73% and FIL 2h -73%.

Backtest, simulated, not live trading. Past results do not guarantee future results.

Every coin

One row per coin, on the timeframe picked below. Filters narrow the view; nothing is left out.

Timeframe
Coins

Showing 40 tests · 32 ended positive · 8 ended negative

TierTF
Top 20 by market cap (ranks 1-20, 20 coins)
BTCPublished chart1Top 204hJan 20188.8+113%+9.0%17.2%-17.2%11185%612 days387 days83%-81%
BTC1Top 202hJan 20188.8+120%+9.3%17.1%-17.0%11688%592 days389 days85%-81%
BTC1Top 201hJan 20188.8+126%+9.7%17.5%-17.5%12489%610 days386 days85%-81%
ETH2Top 204hJan 20188.8+119%+9.3%22.2%-22.0%12492%727 days386 days81%-94%
ETH2Top 202hJan 20188.8+128%+9.8%25.1%-25.0%13592%727 days386 days83%-94%
ETH2Top 201hJan 20188.8+136%+10.2%24.6%-24.3%14694%727 days386 days84%-94%
BNB3Top 204hJan 20188.8+164%+11.6%23.6%-23.1%13891%811 days380 days91%-83%
BNB3Top 202hJan 20188.8+179%+12.4%22.8%-22.7%15093%813 days380 days92%-83%
BNB3Top 201hJan 20188.8+195%+13.1%22.8%-22.6%17393%812 days379 days93%-83%
XRP4Top 204hMay 20188.5+129%+10.3%19.2%-19.1%11888%610 days365 days84%-86%
XRP4Top 202hMay 20188.5+161%+12.0%16.0%-15.9%14790%609 days366 days86%-87%
XRP4Top 201hMay 20188.5+176%+12.7%19.6%-18.6%15091%610 days366 days87%-87%
SOL5Top 204hAug 20206.2+90%+10.9%18.6%-18.6%14295%674 days389 days86%-97%
SOL5Top 202hAug 20206.2+95%+11.3%18.7%-18.7%15896%675 days390 days89%-97%
SOL5Top 201hAug 20206.2+115%+13.1%21.2%-20.8%18996%674 days379 days90%-97%
TRX6Top 204hJun 20188.4+139%+11.0%21.7%-21.5%12387%353 days155 days90%-83%
TRX6Top 202hJun 20188.4+145%+11.3%23.0%-23.0%14090%715 days155 days91%-85%
TRX6Top 201hJun 20188.4+150%+11.6%34.8%-34.8%13189%614 days155 days92%-85%
ZEC7Top 204hMar 20197.6+148%+12.7%40.6%-40.5%14294%972 days31 days85%-96%
ZEC7Top 202hMar 20197.6+182%+14.6%41.3%-41.1%16495%973 days31 days87%-96%
ZEC7Top 201hMar 20197.6+216%+16.3%41.6%-41.4%19795%973 days31 days88%-96%
DOGE8Top 204hJul 20197.3+160%+14.0%27.0%-26.9%11991%358 days36 days76%-93%
DOGE8Top 202hJul 20197.3+196%+16.0%27.0%-26.9%13891%358 days36 days77%-93%
DOGE8Top 201hJul 20197.3+211%+16.8%30.6%-29.9%14094%857 days36 days78%-93%
LINK9Top 204hJan 20197.8+200%+15.2%16.8%-16.8%15993%711 days29 days88%-90%
LINK9Top 202hJan 20197.8+231%+16.7%22.7%-21.6%18494%718 days29 days90%-90%
LINK9Top 201hJan 20197.8+266%+18.2%22.9%-22.2%19995%713 days29 days91%-90%
ADA10Top 204hApr 20188.5+184%+13.0%29.1%-28.3%13891%818 days21 days74%-95%
ADA10Top 202hApr 20188.5+239%+15.4%28.7%-28.3%17893%819 days23 days76%-96%
ADA10Top 201hApr 20188.5+215%+14.4%28.6%-28.3%17393%819 days22 days77%-96%
NEAR11Top 204hOct 20206.0+79%+10.1%37.6%-37.5%10494%651 days16 days87%-95%
NEAR11Top 202hOct 20206.0+100%+12.2%37.5%-37.5%12593%651 days16 days89%-95%
NEAR11Top 201hOct 20206.0+93%+11.5%43.5%-43.3%11594%651 days16 days90%-95%
XLM12Top 204hMay 20188.4+88%+7.8%25.6%-25.0%8287%1,284 days29 days87%-91%
XLM12Top 202hMay 20188.4+102%+8.7%30.9%-30.9%8988%1,287 days29 days88%-92%
XLM12Top 201hMay 20188.4+45%+4.5%31.0%-31.0%9491%1,287 days467 days88%-92%
BCH13Top 204hNov 20196.9+58%+6.8%35.3%-35.2%8091%1,024 days252 days88%-94%
BCH13Top 202hNov 20196.9+71%+8.0%36.0%-35.8%9495%1,025 days253 days89%-94%
BCH13Top 201hNov 20196.9+73%+8.2%36.0%-36.0%9795%1,025 days248 days90%-94%
LTC14Top 204hJan 20188.8+84%+7.2%34.5%-34.5%7589%1,113 days33 days84%-93%
LTC14Top 202hJan 20188.8+100%+8.2%35.1%-35.1%8490%1,112 days33 days85%-93%
LTC14Top 201hJan 20188.8+120%+9.3%35.4%-35.4%9893%1,113 days33 days85%-93%
UNI15Top 204hSep 20206.1+54%+7.3%21.4%-21.3%7090%835 days30 days89%-95%
UNI15Top 202hSep 20206.1+65%+8.6%20.6%-20.6%7991%835 days35 days90%-95%
UNI15Top 201hSep 20206.1+71%+9.2%25.8%-25.8%8592%835 days35 days90%-95%
AVAX16Top 204hSep 20206.1+75%+9.6%21.1%-21.0%10694%615 days28 days72%-96%
AVAX16Top 202hSep 20206.1+68%+8.9%21.8%-21.3%9994%615 days28 days74%-96%
AVAX16Top 201hSep 20206.1+80%+10.1%22.4%-22.4%11595%616 days29 days75%-96%
SUI17Top 204hMay 20233.5+75%+17.4%8.4%-8.3%10697%148 days30 days50%-88%
SUI17Top 202hMay 20233.5+62%+14.8%24.3%-24.2%10598%175 days30 days53%-88%
SUI17Top 201hMay 20233.5+84%+19.1%24.8%-24.8%11297%177 days30 days55%-88%
HBAR18Top 204hSep 20197.1+126%+12.2%21.4%-21.2%12995%846 days29 days76%-93%
HBAR18Top 202hSep 20197.1+154%+14.1%21.6%-21.3%15296%852 days29 days77%-93%
HBAR18Top 201hSep 20197.1+136%+12.9%21.5%-21.4%15396%894 days29 days78%-94%
TAO19Top 204hApr 20242.5+21%+7.6%12.5%-12.4%3887%144 days31 days76%-80%
TAO19Top 202hApr 20242.5+13%+4.8%12.5%-12.5%2584%324 days31 days78%-80%
TAO19Top 201hApr 20242.5+26%+9.6%12.6%-12.5%4589%144 days31 days78%-80%
QNT20Top 204hJul 20215.3+18%+3.2%18.9%-18.6%3077%431 days28 days79%-90%
QNT20Top 202hJul 20215.3+28%+4.9%21.1%-21.1%4283%424 days27 days80%-90%
QNT20Top 201hJul 20215.3+37%+6.2%20.9%-20.9%5487%424 days27 days80%-90%
Coins 21⁠-⁠40 (ranks 21-40, 20 coins)
SHIB2121⁠-⁠404hMay 20215.5-25%-5.2%38.9%-38.4%1883%825 days692 days89%-95%
SHIB2121⁠-⁠402hMay 20215.5-14%-2.6%31.6%-30.8%2588%824 days692 days90%-95%
SHIB2121⁠-⁠401hMay 20215.5-14%-2.6%31.6%-30.9%2688%825 days692 days90%-95%
ENA2221⁠-⁠404hApr 20242.6+34%+12.1%20.3%-20.3%5096%203 days16 days39%-95%
ENA2221⁠-⁠402hApr 20242.6+32%+11.3%20.4%-20.3%6397%203 days23 days40%-95%
ENA2221⁠-⁠401hApr 20242.6+39%+13.7%20.6%-20.2%7697%204 days27 days41%-95%
AAVE2321⁠-⁠404hOct 20206.0+22%+3.4%31.6%-31.4%3992%1,304 days25 days75%-93%
AAVE2321⁠-⁠402hOct 20206.0+57%+7.7%19.6%-19.6%8693%855 days25 days75%-93%
AAVE2321⁠-⁠401hOct 20206.0+33%+4.8%51.2%-51.2%6092%1,136 days26 days76%-93%
PEPE2421⁠-⁠404hMay 20233.5+11%+3.1%32.4%-31.4%8598%60 days685 days79%-92%
PEPE2421⁠-⁠402hMay 20233.5+15%+4.1%32.0%-30.9%10398%69 days685 days81%-92%
PEPE2421⁠-⁠401hMay 20233.5+63%+15.1%20.0%-19.8%12798%164 days464 days82%-92%
DOT2521⁠-⁠404hAug 20206.2-17%-3.0%29.6%-29.5%3097%109 days1,818 days90%-99%
DOT2521⁠-⁠402hAug 20206.2-23%-4.1%37.6%-37.6%4298%108 days1,814 days91%-99%
DOT2521⁠-⁠401hAug 20206.2-14%-2.4%29.6%-29.5%3997%110 days1,819 days91%-99%
WLD2621⁠-⁠404hJul 20233.3-28%-9.6%42.9%-42.9%3397%201 days691 days81%-98%
WLD2621⁠-⁠402hJul 20233.3-27%-9.2%42.8%-42.8%3895%201 days691 days82%-98%
WLD2621⁠-⁠401hJul 20233.3+7%+2.2%20.5%-20.4%4994%271 days413 days82%-98%
ICP2721⁠-⁠404hMay 20215.5+4%+0.8%28.0%-27.9%3391%336 days353 days66%-100%
ICP2721⁠-⁠402hMay 20215.5+16%+2.8%27.9%-27.8%5094%306 days353 days67%-100%
ICP2721⁠-⁠401hMay 20215.5+16%+2.8%28.1%-27.9%5294%329 days353 days67%-100%
ETC2821⁠-⁠404hJun 20188.4+58%+5.6%31.5%-31.1%9989%488 days690 days88%-96%
ETC2821⁠-⁠402hJun 20188.4+71%+6.6%32.2%-31.7%11791%488 days690 days89%-96%
ETC2821⁠-⁠401hJun 20188.4+74%+6.9%31.6%-31.3%12490%483 days690 days89%-96%
ARB2921⁠-⁠404hMar 20233.6-21%-6.2%42.8%-42.8%2692%266 days690 days81%-97%
ARB2921⁠-⁠402hMar 20233.6-17%-4.9%42.9%-42.9%3294%266 days690 days82%-97%
ARB2921⁠-⁠401hMar 20233.6-18%-5.3%43.4%-42.8%3394%266 days692 days82%-97%
POL3021⁠-⁠404hSep 20242.1+4%+1.7%8.8%-8.6%580%356 days28 days54%-91%
POL3021⁠-⁠402hSep 20242.1+4%+1.8%8.7%-8.5%683%359 days28 days54%-91%
POL3021⁠-⁠401hSep 20242.1+2%+1.1%10.1%-10.0%475%359 days30 days54%-91%
ALGO3121⁠-⁠404hJun 20197.4+65%+7.1%24.3%-24.2%10894%704 days645 days83%-97%
ALGO3121⁠-⁠402hJun 20197.4+49%+5.6%32.7%-32.5%11393%704 days649 days89%-97%
ALGO3121⁠-⁠401hJun 20197.4+74%+7.9%33.7%-33.7%12693%704 days467 days90%-97%
JUP3221⁠-⁠404hJan 20242.7-14%-5.5%29.6%-29.5%2095%44 days637 days75%-92%
JUP3221⁠-⁠402hJan 20242.7-15%-5.9%30.1%-30.0%2195%44 days638 days75%-93%
JUP3221⁠-⁠401hJan 20242.7-14%-5.5%29.9%-29.9%2396%52 days638 days76%-93%
RENDER3321⁠-⁠404hJul 20242.3-18%-8.4%30.9%-30.9%4100%2 days523 days64%-89%
RENDER3321⁠-⁠402hJul 20242.3-18%-8.4%31.2%-31.1%4100%8 days523 days65%-89%
RENDER3321⁠-⁠401hJul 20242.3-18%-8.5%31.3%-31.2%4100%9 days523 days65%-89%
ATOM3421⁠-⁠404hApr 20197.5+31%+3.6%34.2%-33.9%10195%140 days1,737 days90%-97%
ATOM3421⁠-⁠402hApr 20197.5+16%+2.0%45.8%-45.4%11997%140 days1,745 days91%-97%
ATOM3421⁠-⁠401hApr 20197.5+15%+1.9%46.0%-45.5%12695%139 days1,746 days92%-97%
INJ3521⁠-⁠404hOct 20206.0+10%+1.6%43.3%-43.0%12097%91 days959 days72%-95%
INJ3521⁠-⁠402hOct 20206.0+14%+2.2%43.4%-43.0%12497%100 days959 days74%-95%
INJ3521⁠-⁠401hOct 20206.0+24%+3.7%44.2%-42.9%14296%98 days959 days75%-95%
FIL3621⁠-⁠404hOct 20206.0-73%-19.6%75.6%-75.6%250%122 days1,878 days91%-100%
FIL3621⁠-⁠402hOct 20206.0-73%-19.5%75.7%-75.5%250%122 days1,878 days91%-100%
FIL3621⁠-⁠401hOct 20206.0-74%-20.1%76.4%-76.3%367%122 days1,878 days91%-100%
DASH3721⁠-⁠404hMar 20197.6+115%+10.6%22.1%-22.1%8787%439 days31 days87%-96%
DASH3721⁠-⁠402hMar 20197.6-14%-2.0%46.1%-44.9%4696%286 days2,000 days89%-96%
DASH3721⁠-⁠401hMar 20197.6+116%+10.7%36.5%-35.8%9591%655 days31 days89%-96%
CAKE3821⁠-⁠404hFeb 20215.7+44%+6.6%62.2%-62.2%5190%857 days33 days88%-98%
CAKE3821⁠-⁠402hFeb 20215.7-39%-8.2%50.7%-50.7%2100%8 days1,864 days90%-98%
CAKE3821⁠-⁠401hFeb 20215.7-39%-8.2%50.7%-50.7%2100%8 days1,864 days90%-98%
ZRO3921⁠-⁠404hJun 20242.4-21%-9.3%36.5%-36.3%0–none closed660 days77%-90%
ZRO3921⁠-⁠402hJun 20242.4-21%-9.4%36.5%-36.4%0–none closed660 days77%-90%
ZRO3921⁠-⁠401hJun 20242.4+3%+1.4%27.1%-26.8%580%632 days12 days77%-90%
ETHFI4021⁠-⁠404hMar 20242.6+63%+20.5%9.6%-9.6%4593%311 days7 days67%-96%
ETHFI4021⁠-⁠402hMar 20242.6+42%+14.4%24.0%-24.0%2793%311 days28 days72%-96%
ETHFI4021⁠-⁠401hMar 20242.6+45%+15.2%24.8%-23.4%3194%311 days21 days72%-97%
  • Drawdown and worst open loss are measured on candle-close equity, open position included.
  • Coin's worst fall: how far the coin itself dropped from a peak over the same period. It puts the drawdown in proportion; it is not a return.
  • Open cycle age: how long the cycle still open at the end of the data has been running.

Built for Bitcoin and large caps

Same settings, two groups: the top 20 by market cap against coins 21⁠-⁠40, on the timeframe picked above.

Top 20 by market capranks 1-20Coins 21⁠-⁠40ranks 21-40
Ended above their start20 of 2012 of 20
Median CAGR+10.1%+1.6%
Median max drawdown21.4%31.5%
Worst max drawdown40.6% (ZEC)75.6% (FIL)
Median worst open loss-21.5%-31.4%
Median fall of the coinPeak to low, same period-93%-96%
Cycles closed within 30 days91.3% of 2,13493.2% of 956
Median time in market84%79%
Coins with a year-old open cycleAt the end of the data4 of 2013 of 20

Top 20 by market cap with a cycle open for over a year: BTC, ETH, BNB and SOL. Coins 21⁠-⁠40: SHIB, PEPE, DOT, WLD, ETC, ARB, ALGO, JUP, RENDER, ATOM, INJ, FIL and ZRO.

Top 20 by market capranks 1-20Coins 21⁠-⁠40ranks 21-40
Ended above their start20 of 2010 of 20
Median CAGR+11.3%-2.0%
Median max drawdown22.8%32.2%
Worst max drawdown41.3% (ZEC)75.7% (FIL)
Median worst open loss-23.0%-32.5%
Median fall of the coinPeak to low, same period-93%-96%
Cycles closed within 30 days92.5% of 2,40494.8% of 1,020
Median time in market85%81%
Coins with a year-old open cycleAt the end of the data5 of 2015 of 20

Top 20 by market cap with a cycle open for over a year: BTC, ETH, BNB, XRP and SOL. Coins 21⁠-⁠40: SHIB, PEPE, DOT, WLD, ETC, ARB, ALGO, JUP, RENDER, ATOM, INJ, FIL, DASH, CAKE and ZRO.

Top 20 by market capranks 1-20Coins 21⁠-⁠40ranks 21-40
Ended above their start20 of 2013 of 20
Median CAGR+11.5%+1.9%
Median max drawdown24.6%31.3%
Worst max drawdown43.5% (NEAR)76.4% (FIL)
Median worst open loss-24.8%-31.2%
Median fall of the coinPeak to low, same period-93%-96%
Cycles closed within 30 days93.4% of 2,59093.9% of 1,147
Median time in market85%82%
Coins with a year-old open cycleAt the end of the data6 of 2013 of 20

Top 20 by market cap with a cycle open for over a year: BTC, ETH, BNB, XRP, SOL and XLM. Coins 21⁠-⁠40: SHIB, PEPE, DOT, WLD, ETC, ARB, ALGO, JUP, RENDER, ATOM, INJ, FIL and CAKE.

How long cycles took

How long money stayed in a cycle before its take profit, and which coins still hold one that opened more than a year ago. Follows the filters above.

Closed cycles by length

3,090 closed cycles · All coins · 4h

  • Up to 30 days91.9%
  • 31 to 90 days3.8%
  • 91 days to 1 year3.5%
  • Over 1 year0.8% (24 cycles)

No cycle closed at a loss, by design: with no stop loss, a cycle that falls stays open until it reaches its take profit, however long that takes.

Still open after more than a year

17 of 40 coins, at the end of the data (27 Oct 2026)

  1. FIL1,878 days · since Sep 2021
  2. DOT1,818 days · since Nov 2021
  3. ATOM1,737 days · since Jan 2022
  4. INJ959 days · since Mar 2024
  5. SHIB692 days · since Dec 2024
  6. WLD691 days · since Dec 2024
  7. ETC690 days · since Dec 2024
  8. ARB690 days · since Dec 2024
  9. PEPE685 days · since Dec 2024
  10. ZRO660 days · since Jan 2025
  11. ALGO645 days · since Jan 2025
  12. JUP637 days · since Jan 2025
  13. RENDER523 days · since May 2025
  14. SOL389 days · since Oct 2025
  15. BTC387 days · since Oct 2025
  16. ETH386 days · since Oct 2025
  17. BNB380 days · since Oct 2025

Closed cycles by length

2,134 closed cycles · Top 20 by market cap · 4h

  • Up to 30 days91.3%
  • 31 to 90 days4.3%
  • 91 days to 1 year3.6%
  • Over 1 year0.8% (18 cycles)

No cycle closed at a loss, by design: with no stop loss, a cycle that falls stays open until it reaches its take profit, however long that takes.

Still open after more than a year

4 of 20 coins, at the end of the data (27 Oct 2026)

  1. SOL389 days · since Oct 2025
  2. BTC387 days · since Oct 2025
  3. ETH386 days · since Oct 2025
  4. BNB380 days · since Oct 2025

Closed cycles by length

956 closed cycles · Coins 21⁠-⁠40 · 4h

  • Up to 30 days93.2%
  • 31 to 90 days2.8%
  • 91 days to 1 year3.4%
  • Over 1 year0.6% (6 cycles)

No cycle closed at a loss, by design: with no stop loss, a cycle that falls stays open until it reaches its take profit, however long that takes.

Still open after more than a year

13 of 20 coins, at the end of the data (27 Oct 2026)

  1. FIL1,878 days · since Sep 2021
  2. DOT1,818 days · since Nov 2021
  3. ATOM1,737 days · since Jan 2022
  4. INJ959 days · since Mar 2024
  5. SHIB692 days · since Dec 2024
  6. WLD691 days · since Dec 2024
  7. ETC690 days · since Dec 2024
  8. ARB690 days · since Dec 2024
  9. PEPE685 days · since Dec 2024
  10. ZRO660 days · since Jan 2025
  11. ALGO645 days · since Jan 2025
  12. JUP637 days · since Jan 2025
  13. RENDER523 days · since May 2025

Closed cycles by length

3,424 closed cycles · All coins · 2h

  • Up to 30 days93.2%
  • 31 to 90 days3.1%
  • 91 days to 1 year3.0%
  • Over 1 year0.7% (23 cycles)

No cycle closed at a loss, by design: with no stop loss, a cycle that falls stays open until it reaches its take profit, however long that takes.

Still open after more than a year

20 of 40 coins, at the end of the data (27 Oct 2026)

  1. DASH2,000 days · since May 2021
  2. FIL1,878 days · since Sep 2021
  3. CAKE1,864 days · since Sep 2021
  4. DOT1,814 days · since Nov 2021
  5. ATOM1,745 days · since Jan 2022
  6. INJ959 days · since Mar 2024
  7. SHIB692 days · since Dec 2024
  8. WLD691 days · since Dec 2024
  9. ETC690 days · since Dec 2024
  10. ARB690 days · since Dec 2024
  11. PEPE685 days · since Dec 2024
  12. ZRO660 days · since Jan 2025
  13. ALGO649 days · since Jan 2025
  14. JUP638 days · since Jan 2025
  15. RENDER523 days · since May 2025
  16. SOL390 days · since Oct 2025
  17. BTC389 days · since Oct 2025
  18. ETH386 days · since Oct 2025
  19. BNB380 days · since Oct 2025
  20. XRP366 days · since Oct 2025

Closed cycles by length

2,404 closed cycles · Top 20 by market cap · 2h

  • Up to 30 days92.5%
  • 31 to 90 days3.6%
  • 91 days to 1 year3.1%
  • Over 1 year0.8% (19 cycles)

No cycle closed at a loss, by design: with no stop loss, a cycle that falls stays open until it reaches its take profit, however long that takes.

Still open after more than a year

5 of 20 coins, at the end of the data (27 Oct 2026)

  1. SOL390 days · since Oct 2025
  2. BTC389 days · since Oct 2025
  3. ETH386 days · since Oct 2025
  4. BNB380 days · since Oct 2025
  5. XRP366 days · since Oct 2025

Closed cycles by length

1,020 closed cycles · Coins 21⁠-⁠40 · 2h

  • Up to 30 days94.8%
  • 31 to 90 days2.1%
  • 91 days to 1 year2.7%
  • Over 1 year0.4% (4 cycles)

No cycle closed at a loss, by design: with no stop loss, a cycle that falls stays open until it reaches its take profit, however long that takes.

Still open after more than a year

15 of 20 coins, at the end of the data (27 Oct 2026)

  1. DASH2,000 days · since May 2021
  2. FIL1,878 days · since Sep 2021
  3. CAKE1,864 days · since Sep 2021
  4. DOT1,814 days · since Nov 2021
  5. ATOM1,745 days · since Jan 2022
  6. INJ959 days · since Mar 2024
  7. SHIB692 days · since Dec 2024
  8. WLD691 days · since Dec 2024
  9. ETC690 days · since Dec 2024
  10. ARB690 days · since Dec 2024
  11. PEPE685 days · since Dec 2024
  12. ZRO660 days · since Jan 2025
  13. ALGO649 days · since Jan 2025
  14. JUP638 days · since Jan 2025
  15. RENDER523 days · since May 2025

Closed cycles by length

3,737 closed cycles · All coins · 1h

  • Up to 30 days93.6%
  • 31 to 90 days2.9%
  • 91 days to 1 year2.8%
  • Over 1 year0.7% (28 cycles)

No cycle closed at a loss, by design: with no stop loss, a cycle that falls stays open until it reaches its take profit, however long that takes.

Still open after more than a year

19 of 40 coins, at the end of the data (27 Oct 2026)

  1. FIL1,878 days · since Sep 2021
  2. CAKE1,864 days · since Sep 2021
  3. DOT1,819 days · since Nov 2021
  4. ATOM1,746 days · since Jan 2022
  5. INJ959 days · since Mar 2024
  6. SHIB692 days · since Dec 2024
  7. ARB692 days · since Dec 2024
  8. ETC690 days · since Dec 2024
  9. JUP638 days · since Jan 2025
  10. RENDER523 days · since May 2025
  11. XLM467 days · since Jul 2025
  12. ALGO467 days · since Jul 2025
  13. PEPE464 days · since Jul 2025
  14. WLD413 days · since Sep 2025
  15. BTC386 days · since Oct 2025
  16. ETH386 days · since Oct 2025
  17. BNB379 days · since Oct 2025
  18. SOL379 days · since Oct 2025
  19. XRP366 days · since Oct 2025

Closed cycles by length

2,590 closed cycles · Top 20 by market cap · 1h

  • Up to 30 days93.4%
  • 31 to 90 days3.1%
  • 91 days to 1 year2.7%
  • Over 1 year0.8% (21 cycles)

No cycle closed at a loss, by design: with no stop loss, a cycle that falls stays open until it reaches its take profit, however long that takes.

Still open after more than a year

6 of 20 coins, at the end of the data (27 Oct 2026)

  1. XLM467 days · since Jul 2025
  2. BTC386 days · since Oct 2025
  3. ETH386 days · since Oct 2025
  4. BNB379 days · since Oct 2025
  5. SOL379 days · since Oct 2025
  6. XRP366 days · since Oct 2025

Closed cycles by length

1,147 closed cycles · Coins 21⁠-⁠40 · 1h

  • Up to 30 days93.9%
  • 31 to 90 days2.6%
  • 91 days to 1 year2.9%
  • Over 1 year0.6% (7 cycles)

No cycle closed at a loss, by design: with no stop loss, a cycle that falls stays open until it reaches its take profit, however long that takes.

Still open after more than a year

13 of 20 coins, at the end of the data (27 Oct 2026)

  1. FIL1,878 days · since Sep 2021
  2. CAKE1,864 days · since Sep 2021
  3. DOT1,819 days · since Nov 2021
  4. ATOM1,746 days · since Jan 2022
  5. INJ959 days · since Mar 2024
  6. SHIB692 days · since Dec 2024
  7. ARB692 days · since Dec 2024
  8. ETC690 days · since Dec 2024
  9. JUP638 days · since Jan 2025
  10. RENDER523 days · since May 2025
  11. ALGO467 days · since Jul 2025
  12. PEPE464 days · since Jul 2025
  13. WLD413 days · since Sep 2025

What this does not show

The limits of these numbers, stated next to them.

  • Backtests, not live trading

    Every figure on this page is simulated on past prices. Past results do not guarantee future results, and there is no live track record behind them yet.

  • No stop loss by default

    A cycle that falls stays open until it reaches its take profit. At the end of the data (27 Oct 2026, 4h), four of the top 20 by market cap (BTC, ETH, BNB and SOL) and 13 of the 20 coins ranked 21⁠-⁠40 hold a cycle opened more than a year ago. What they end at depends on what the coin does next.

  • Open positions are counted

    Drawdown and worst open loss are measured on candle-close equity, open position included.

  • The coin's own fall is context, not a return comparison

    The coin's worst fall is how far the coin itself dropped from a peak over the same period. It puts the strategy's drawdown in proportion; it says nothing about which made more.

  • Costs

    0.1% commission and slippage included. Spot only: no funding and no leverage.

  • The defaults were tuned on the largest coins

    The default settings were tuned on BTC, ETH, BNB, XRP, SOL, TRX, DOGE, LINK, ADA, XLM, BCH, LTC, AVAX and DOT, the largest coins when the research was done; DOT now ranks 25. On the other 26 coins: 56 of 78 tests ended above their start. Several of them served as hold-out checks in the research, to accept or reject a change, never to tune it.

  • The coins were fixed before any result

    The test runs on the first 40 coins by CoinGecko market cap on 28 Oct 2026 that are not stablecoins, wrapped tokens or real-world assets, and that trade on Binance both as spot (against USDT) and as a USDT-margined perpetual, each listed before 28 Oct 2024. That list was fixed before any result was seen, every coin ran the same settings, and every result is shown.

  • Only coins that still trade

    The list is today's market: every coin still trades. A coin that collapsed and was delisted before 28 Oct 2026 would have left a cycle open with no way out; no such coin is in the test.

  • The simulator is close to TradingView, not identical

    Navixa's research simulator reproduces the published chart: BTC 4h +113% here against +109.91% on TradingView, max drawdown 17.2% against 17.77%. The tables end on 27 Oct 2026, the published report on 24 Oct 2026. The tables and charts on this page come from the simulator.

Download the full table

Every row above as CSV: 120 tests, with the source, settings and costs in the first lines.

Download CSVHow the backtests were run

How Smart DCA works Plans and pricing Price Action results

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